GOUDET Olivier

PhD graduated
Team : SMA
Departure date : 08/31/2016

Supervision : Nicolas SABOURET

Co-supervision : KANT Jean-Daniel

The multi-agent modelling of the french labor market

This thesis presents an agent-based model of the labor market. The model simulates the market at the aggregate level and at the level of the principal manpower categories, on the basis of the decisions of heterogenous agents, firms and individuals, who interact. These decisions rely on computations of profits and utilities in a context of bounded rationality. The theoretical structure that underlies the decisions is the search concept. We apply this framework to the case of France in 2011. The model is at a scale of 1/4700. It is fairly detailed on the institutions of the labor market which constrain the agents’ decisions. Subsequently, it is calibrated by a powerful algorithm to reproduce a large number of variables of interest. The calibrated model presents a coherent accounting system of the gross flows of the individuals between the main states, employment, distinguishing open ended contracts and fixed duration contracts, unemployment and inactivity. The simulation of the gross flows enables us to analyse the patterns of mobility and to characterize the nature of the labor market under study, reproducing the high proportion of the fixed duration contracts in the hiring flows, and it points to a dualism of the French labor market. Modeling crowding out of some categories of workers (for instance the youths) by others is then a main contribution of the model to the labor market analysis. Finally, we study economic policies according to various indicators. We show that it is difficult to find a public policy which provides good results for all criteria and which is beneficial both for firms and individuals. It is all a question of compromise and political choice.

Defence : 11/19/2015

Jury members :

M. Philippe Mathieu, Professeur à l'université Lille 1 [Rapporteur]
M. François Legendre, Professeur à l'université Paris-Est Créteil [Rapporteur]
Mme Amal El Fallah Seghrouchni, Professeur à l'université Pierre et Marie Curie
M. Philippe Caillou, Maître de conférences à l'université Paris Sud
M. Nicolas Sabouret, Professeur à l'université Paris-Sud
M. Jean-Daniel Kant, Maître de conférences à l'université Pierre et Marie Curie
M. Gérard Ballot, Professeur à l'université Panthéon-Assas

Departure date : 08/31/2016

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