Séminaire Donnees et APprentissage Artificiel
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The Language of Betting as a Strategy for Scientific Communication
Intervenant(s) : Glenn Shafer (Rutgers Business School)The established language for statistical testing -- significance levels, power, and p-values -- is overly complicated and deceptively conclusive. Even teachers of statistics and scientists who use statistics misinterpret the results of statistical tests, tending to misstate their meaning and exaggerate their certainty. We can communicate the meaning and limitations of statistical evidence more clearly using the language of betting. This talk calls attention to a simple betting interpretation of likelihood ratios, significance levels, and p-values. This interpretation clarifies the special character of statistical testing and estimation, which should be only one chapter in a larger mathematical theory of evidence.
Glenn Shafer is professor at Rutgers University. In addition to being a university educator for nearly 50 years, he was a volunteer in the United States Peace Corps and served for four years as a business school dean. As a scholar, he is known for his work on the theory of evidence, on game-theoretic probability, and on the history of probability and statistics. His most recent book, Game-Theoretic Foundations for Probability and Finance with Volodya Vovk, will be published by Wiley in May.
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