GOUDET Olivier
رئاسـة البـحث : Nicolas SABOURET
تأطـير مـشـترك : KANT Jean-Daniel
The multi-agent modelling of the french labor market
This thesis presents an agent-based model of the labor market. The model simulates the market at the aggregate level and at the level of the principal manpower categories, on the basis of the decisions of heterogenous agents, firms and individuals, who interact. These decisions rely on computations of profits and utilities in a context of bounded rationality. The theoretical structure that underlies the decisions is the search concept. We apply this framework to the case of France in 2011. The model is at a scale of 1/4700. It is fairly detailed on the institutions of the labor market which constrain the agents’ decisions. Subsequently, it is calibrated by a powerful algorithm to reproduce a large number of variables of interest. The calibrated model presents a coherent accounting system of the gross flows of the individuals between the main states, employment, distinguishing open ended contracts and fixed duration contracts, unemployment and inactivity. The simulation of the gross flows enables us to analyse the patterns of mobility and to characterize the nature of the labor market under study, reproducing the high proportion of the fixed duration contracts in the hiring flows, and it points to a dualism of the French labor market. Modeling crowding out of some categories of workers (for instance the youths) by others is then a main contribution of the model to the labor market analysis. Finally, we study economic policies according to various indicators. We show that it is difficult to find a public policy which provides good results for all criteria and which is beneficial both for firms and individuals. It is all a question of compromise and political choice.
مناقـشـة مـذكـرة : 19/11/2015
أعـضاء لجنة المناقـشة :
M. Philippe Mathieu, Professeur à l'université Lille 1 [Rapporteur]
M. François Legendre, Professeur à l'université Paris-Est Créteil [Rapporteur]
Mme Amal El Fallah Seghrouchni, Professeur à l'université Pierre et Marie Curie
M. Philippe Caillou, Maître de conférences à l'université Paris Sud
M. Nicolas Sabouret, Professeur à l'université Paris-Sud
M. Jean-Daniel Kant, Maître de conférences à l'université Pierre et Marie Curie
M. Gérard Ballot, Professeur à l'université Panthéon-Assas
إصدارات 2013-2020
-
2020
- J.‑D. Kant, G. Ballot, O. Goudet : “WorkSim, an Agent-Based Model to Study Labor Markets”, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 23 (4), (SimSoc Consortium) (2020)
-
2017
- O. Goudet, J.‑D. Kant, G. Ballot : “Simulation multi-agents de l’introduction du contrat intérim dans le marché du travail”, Journée MAGECO 2017 (Modèles basés Agents en Economie), Lille, France (2017)
- G. Ballot, J.‑D. Kant, O. Goudet : “A multi-agent model to simulate the introduction of a temporary help agency in a labor market”, Modelling and Analysis of Complex Monetary Economies - MACME IV, Saint-Denis, France (2017)
- G. Ballot, O. Goudet, J.‑D. Kant : “Introduction d’un contrat intérim dans le marché du travail français : un modèle multi-agents”, 14e Conférence Annuelle TEPP - "Expérimentation & Evaluation des Politiques Publiques", Angers, France (2017)
- O. Goudet, G. Ballot, J.‑D. Kant : “Introducing a temporary help agency in a labor market : a multi-agent model”, 22nd annual Workshop on the Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents (WEHIA 2017), Milan, Italy (2017)
-
2016
- J.‑D. Kant, G. Ballot, O. Goudet : “A multiagent approach to evaluate labor policies”, MACME III – Modeling and Analysis of Complex Monetary Economies, Villetaneuse, France (2016)
- J.‑D. Kant, G. Ballot, O. Goudet : “WorkSim, an agent-based framework to study labor markets”, International Conference on Agent Computing, Fairfax, United States (2016)
- J.‑D. Kant, O. Goudet, G. Ballot : “An agent-based approach to evaluate the impact of economic dismissals facilitation on the French labor market”, Conférence interdisciplinaire « Evaluation des Politiques Publiques », St-Denis de la Réunion, France (2016)
- J.‑D. Kant, O. Goudet, G. Ballot : “An ex ante evaluation of economic dismissals facilitation on the French labor market: An agent-based model”, 12th Artificial Economics Conference, Artificial Economics 2016, Rome, Italy (2016)
- O. Goudet, J.‑D. Kant, G. Ballot : “WorkSim: A Calibrated Agent-Based Model of the Labor Market Accounting for Workers’ Stocks and Gross Flows”, Computational Economics, vol. 50 (1), pp. 21–68, (Springer Verlag) (2016)
- G. Ballot, J.‑D. Kant, O. Goudet : “Un modèle multi-agents du marché du travail français, outil d’évaluation des politiques de l’emploi. L’exemple du contrat de génération”, Revue Economique, vol. 67 (4), pp. 831-869, (Presses de Sciences Po) (2016)
-
2015
- O. Goudet : “La modélisation multi-agent du marché du travail français”, أطروحة, مناقـشـة مـذكـرة 19/11/2015, رئاسـة البـحث Sabouret, Nicolas, تأطـير مـشـترك : Kant, Jean-Daniel (2015)
- G. Ballot, J.‑D. Kant, O. Goudet : “Endogenous choices of contract types in an agent-based model of the labor market”, Colloque annuel TEPP (Travail, Emploi et Politiques Publiques)., Paris, France (2015)
- O. Goudet, G. Ballot, J.‑D. Kant : “How to choose a contract type in the French Labor Market : an agent-based model”, Artificial Economics 2015, Porto, Portugal (2015)
- G. Ballot, J.‑D. Kant, O. Goudet : “Endogenous choices of contract types in an agent-based model of the labor market”, WEHIA 2015. 20th Annual Workshop on the Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, Sophia-Antipolis, France (2015)
- O. Goudet, J.‑D. Kant, G. Ballot : “Forbidding Fixed Duration Contracts: Unfolding the Opposing Consequences with a Multi-Agent Model of the French Labor Market”, chapter in Advances in Artificial Economics, vol. 676, Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, pp. 151-167, (Springer), (ISBN: 978-3-319-09578-3) (2015)
-
2014
- O. Goudet, J.‑D. Kant, G. Ballot : “Une endogénéisation des choix de contrats dans un modèle multi-agents du marché du travail français”, MAGECO 2014 - Modèles basés agents en Economie, Paris, France (2014)
- O. Goudet, J.‑D. Kant, G. Ballot : “Forbidding fixed duration contracts. Unfolding the opposing effects with a multiagent model of the French labour market”, AE 2014 - 10th Artificial Economics Conference, Barecelona, Spain (2014)
-
2013
- G. Ballot, J.‑D. Kant, O. Goudet : “Modeling both sides of the French labor market with adaptive agents under bounded rationality *”, The 25th Annual Conference of the EAEPE (European Association for Evolutionary Political Economy), Bobigny, France (2013)
- G. Ballot, J.‑D. Kant, O. Goudet : “A multi-agent model of the French Labor Market : WORKSIM”, WEHIA 2013 - 18th Annual Workshop on Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, Reykjavik, Iceland (2013)
- G. Ballot, J.‑D. Kant, O. Goudet : “WorkSim, un simulateur multi-agents du marché du travail français”, MAGECO (Modèles basés Agents en Economie) 2013, Paris, France (2013)
- G. Ballot, J.‑D. Kant, O. Goudet : “WorkSim : un simulateur multi-agents du marché du travail français”, Journées Expériences et perspectives de la microsimulation, JEM 2014, Montreuil, France (2013)